Looking Into the Crystal Ball: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

Ahh, spring training...a sign that the baseball season is about to be upon us.

While Wisconsin is currently being bombarded with yet more snow (white-out!), the Brewers are gathering down at their facility in Maryvale, Arizona in preparation for the upcoming baseball season, which begins in just a little over a month.

It was an awfully busy offseason for baseball, and it appears far more free agents have found jobs this year than last year. I wish I could do a whole post on the wonder that is the "minor league deal", but alas, that is not what this is about.

The Phillies made possibly the biggest move of the offseason, stealing Cliff Lee from right under the Yankees noses, and forming one of the best rotations many have seen in the past two decades (hello early-90's Atlanta Braves).

But of course, here in America's Dairyland, people are still buzzing over the Zack Greinke trade (and a Packers' Superbowl victory, but that's sooo two weeks ago). I am still pumped over this trade, even if a lot of the players involved we're guys I was looking forward to seeing in Brewer unis at some point. I'll gladly hand the Phillies the label of NL favorites right now (sorry San Fran), but the Brewers have just as legit a chance to contend with great players like Greinke and Ryan Braun. But who outside of them will make this possibly a team to remember? Wonder no more, as here are some observations I've made for this upcoming Brewers' season...

Player to Watch: Prince Fielder, 1B

All eyes were on Fielder following this past offseason. A lot of fans, myself included, thought he was gone for good. As good of a player he is, there was no way the Brewers could compete without top tier pitching, and it would have had to take Fielder to land one of those. Well, I was wrong. Melvin cleaned out the farm and landed a couple big kahunas in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, giving the club one more of Fielder batting behind Braun.

Fielder's contract negotiations went precisely nowhere between his evil agent Scott Boras and Brewers' GM Doug Melvin, so this is indeed a contract year for Fielder. I love that term: contract year. It's the last year of a contract in which the player basically needs to prove to interested teams that he will be worth the large investment he seeks in free agency. For Fielder, this needs to be his swan song on the Brewers. And if he really wants to get $200 million from someone, he's going to have to hit his ass off after a disappointing 2010. Look for him to put up gaudy offensive numbers this year, reminding folks again why he is still one of the premier sluggers in the league.

Pitcher to Watch: Shaun Marcum, SP

Greinke will obviously be the star of the rotation, and Gallardo will be Gallardo, but the most overlooked acquisition was Shaun Marcum. I was fortunate enough to see Marcum pitch live 2 years ago while still on the Blue Jays, and suffice to say, I was impressed. I've never felt like he's completely got his due, constantly being overshadowed by Roy Halladay, who's arguably the best pitcher in baseball this side of Felix Hernandez. Putting up a 3.64 ERA with a 3.74 FIP in the powerful AL East is impressive enough for my taste. He doesn't strike a ton out, but he doesn't walk many either, nor does he give up many homeruns. He's a smart pitcher who knows how to pitch, and has a fantastic changeup which is deadly to lefties (sucks to be you, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce). Marcum will definitely be on my radar as a guy who could really surprise a lot of people this season. A switch to the NL has been favorable for many AL pitchers, and I have a feeling that will hold true for both Marcum and Greinke who will now only face 8 hitters each time out instead of 9.

Player Most Likely to Improve: Jonathan Lucroy, C

I am a big fan of Captain Jon Luc (lil nickname for you Trekkies out there). Not for just the way he plays, but his work ethic as well. Lucroy all through the minors was described as "solid" both at and behind the plate, and it started to show a little last season. What many forget is that the plan was never for Lucroy to see significant time with the big league club in 2010, many projected him to push for a starting spot THIS year. But due to an untimely injury to Gregg Zaun and the defensive ineptitude of George Kottaras, Lucroy was pushed into playing time and held his own fairly well. One thing Lucroy excelled at greatly in the minors was his plate patience, his ability to take a walk and never give away an AB. Going from AA to major league pitching is a big jump, and it showed during his time as a starter. He doesn't have a great arm, but it's good enough, and he has great precision with it. Lucroy is a smart catcher with a good attitude and a hard work ethic, and he handles most pitchers well (save Randy Wolf, which always went weird for some reason). I expect his offensive game to improve, as well as some defensive skills. Having that taste of the majors last year can only have helped him rather than hurt him, he should be a rock there for at least a couple years.

Pitcher Most Likely to Improve: Yovani Gallardo, SP

After two years as the Brewers ace, how can Yo go up any further you might be asking. Thus far, Gallardo has been a very solid player, yet I can't help  shake the feeling he's always capable of more. Before experiencing some issues with his side last season, Gallardo was putting up excellent numbers, and noticeably still looked hurt when he came back and his numbers dipped. Despite missing some starts and being skipped at the end of the year, he still struck out 200 batters last season. With the pressure off of him now to be THE guy in the Brewers rotation (sorry Zack), I think Gallardo has his best year this season. He has all the tools to be a great pitcher, the last thing to do is to put it all together in a full season.

Player Most Likely to Disappoint: Corey Hart, RF

Many of you are probably wondering how on earth Betancourt misses this honor. My answer is that you have to have expectations of someone for them to disappoint you, and as of right now, I don't have any expectations for him. In fact, he can only EXCEED my expectations at this point. I have a similar, yet more optimistic outlook for Carlos Gomez as well (he at least goes all out when he plays).

Now, this doesn't mean I think Hart will fall flat on his face. I'd put Jose Bautista here if I were writing about the Blue Jays, because very few guys can improve upon the numbers he put up last season. Same goes for Hart, sort of. I expect him to still be a good offensive player, but perhaps not quite the power hitter he was in 2010. 30 homeruns for Hart again seems like a lot to ask, though I must admit his new found plate patience has been nice to watch. With his improved eyesight, Hart has shown he can be a big contributor in a lineup. However, I just don't think he can keep up that production. Prove me wrong, Corey. Prove-me-wrong!

Pitcher Most Likely to Disappoint: Kameron Loe, RP

I struggled to pick someone here. I almost picked Axford, ALMOST, but something stopped me. I honestly don't think Axford's 2010 was a fluke, and I think he remains rather consistent. A young fireballer who appeared to be improving as the season went on, what's not to like? I chose Loe because sinkerballers are very inconsistent. Look at Todd Coffey: rockstar for the Brewers pen in '09, your average joe in 2010. Derek Lowe? Ace for the Dodgers in '08, overpaid disappointment in Atlanta in '09. Loe had a lot of appearances last season in what was really a fairly short period of time, and was still pretty efficient. I think he can still be a good arm out of the pen, but perhaps not as effective as he was in his super-relief role last season.

Minor League Player to Watch: Logan Schafer, CF

Ever since the Greinke trade which sent center field heir apparent Lorenzo Cain away, my eyes immediately turned to Schafer. He missed most of 2010 recovering from a groin injury, yet still managed to show no rust during his stint in the Arizona Fall League (where most teams since their best prospects). Schafer has proved to be a superb defender, with a fairly good bat to boot. I think a lot of people want to see a little more power out of a CF prospect, but he can certainly hold his own. Some question his ceiling, but many did with Cain too following an injury laden '09, and ended up playing his way into the everyday lineup with Milwaukee during the latter part of last season. Schafer has some good tools, maybe not off the charts amazing, but I firmly believe he can prove to be an everyday contributor at some point in the near future with the big league club. After missing most of what would have been his stint with the Brewers' AA affiliate, the heads have decided to keep his progression moving along and plan to have him start in AAA Nashville this year with the Sounds. Mat Gamel, Caleb Gindl, and Kentrail Davis will be other interesting names to watch.

Minor League Pitcher to Watch: Mark Rogers, SP

After the farm system was completely cleaned out, Rogers was almost by default named the Brewers top prospect for 2011. After a rash of injuries following being the Brewers' first round pick in 2004, Rogers has worked his way back up through the system to AAA, where he'll likely begin the 2011 season. Rogers is still only 24 years old, having been drafted out of high school, and has an electric fastball that can top out at 100 mph. His inability to consistently go more than 5 innings a start due to control issues and healthy precaution may limit Rogers future as a starter, so this season will be especially important for him to prove that he can stay in that spot. Rogers' control issues at this stage of is career are mostly due to lack of experience rather than poor development, so there is a chance he could improve in that area enough to stick as a starter. If not though, Rogers could still be a very valuable asset out of the bullpen with a 5-pitch repertoire including his vaunted fastball and a big curveball, so either way his future is bright. Barring any further injury issues, it's not a matter of if he'll see time with the big league club this season, but when.

Other names to watch in the minors will be Amaury Rivas, Wily Peralta, and Cody Scarpetta.

The Brewers will be successful if...Rickie Weeks can stay healthy, and the players can buy into what new skipper Ron Roenicke preaches. Weeks has shown that when healthy, he is one of the better 2B in the entire league, with all the tools to be great. I have little doubt that if he can stay on the field, he will have a good season. Roenicke is perhaps the most overlooked transaction of the offseason, but all too important. His experience with the a successful Angels franchise should prove valuable, but getting to know the players could take time. Barriers between some of the players and Macha proved to be somewhat of an issue last season. Roenicke has all the parts in place, he just needs to make the engine go. Don't be surprised if the team gets off to somewhat of a slow start.

Brewers' record at the end of the season: 90-72

And with how wide open this division is, that could be good enough for 1st place. It's playoffs or bust for the Brewers again this season, though with only the expected departure of Fielder next offseason, they could be a contender again in 2012 if all falls into place. The key to this season will be getting a lot of guys to stay healthy and keeping the clubhouse in tact. Chemistry is perhaps an underrated and at the same time overrated word in sports. You can put together a team of superstars who have never played together and still succeed (like the Yankees), or you can do the same thing and watch them play for nobody but themselves, ultimately falling flat on their faces (like the Cowboys). Roenicke seems to be a smart guy, and this is a talented group of individuals. The next step is just putting it all together and start winning games. Regardless of how it ends, it should be a good journey and a fun team to watch all season long.